Recursive estimation of average vehicle time headway using single inductive loop detector data

Vehicle time headway is an important traffic parameter. It affects roadway safety, capacity, and level of service. Single inductive loop detectors are widely deployed in road networks, supplying a wealth of information on the current status of traffic flow. In this paper, we perform Bayesian analysis to online estimate average vehicle time headway using the data collected from a single inductive loop detector. We consider three different scenarios, i.e. light, congested, and disturbed traffic conditions, and have developed a set of unified recursive estimation equations that can be applied to all three scenarios. The computational overhead of updating the estimate is kept to a minimum. The developed recursive method provides an efficient way for the online monitoring of roadway safety and level of service. The method is illustrated using a simulation study and real traffic data.     

On the income elasticity of the value of travel time

Transport infrastructure is long-term and in appraisal it is necessary to value travel time savings for future years. This requires knowing how the value of time (VTT) will develop over time as incomes grow. This paper investigates if the cross-sectional income elasticity of the VTT is equal to inter-temporal income elasticity. The study is based on two identical stated choice experiments conducted with a 13 year interval. Results indicate that the relationship between income and the VTT in the cross-section has remained unchanged over time. As a consequence, the inter-temporal income elasticity of the VTT can be predicted based on cross-sectional income elasticity. However, the income elasticity of the VTT is not a constant but increases with income. For this reason, the average income elasticity of the VTT in the cross-sections has increased between the two survey years and can be expected to increase further over time.     

Understanding the impacts of a combination of service improvement strategies on bus running time and passenger’s perception

Transit agencies implement many strategies in order to provide an attractive transportation service. This article aims to evaluate the impacts of implementing a combination of strategies, designed to improve the bus transit service, on running time and passenger satisfaction. These strategies include using smart card fare collection, introducing limited-stop bus service, implementing reserved bus lanes, using articulated buses, and implementing transit signal priority (TSP). This study uses stop-level data collected from the Société de transport de Montréal (STM)’s automatic vehicle location (AVL) and automatic passenger count (APC) systems, in Montréal, Canada. The combination of these strategies has lead to a 10.5% decline in running time along the limited stop service compared to the regular service. The regular route running time has increased by 1% on average compared to the initial time period. The study also shows that riders are generally satisfied with the service improvements. They tend to overestimate the savings associated with the implementation of this combination of strategies by 3.5-6.0 min and by 2.5-4.1 min for both the regular route and the limited stop service, respectively. This study helps transit planners and policy makers to better understand the effects of implementing a combination of strategies to improve running time and passenger’s perception of these changes in service.     

Value of travel time reliability: A review of current evidence

Travel time reliability is a fundamental factor in travel behavior. It represents the temporal uncertainty experienced by travelers in their movement between any two nodes in a network. The importance of the time reliability depends on the penalties incurred by the travelers. In road networks, travelers consider the existence of a trip travel time uncertainty in different choice situations (departure time, route, mode, and others). In this paper, a systematic review of the current state of research in travel time reliability, and more explicitly in the value of travel time reliability is presented. Moreover, a meta-analysis is performed in order to determine the reasons behind the discrepancy among the reliability estimates.     

Prediction of travel time variability for cost-benefit analysis

Unreliable travel times cause substantial costs to travelers. Nevertheless, they are often not taken into account in cost-benefit analyses (CBA), or only in very rough ways. This paper aims at providing simple rules to predict variability, based on travel time data from Dutch highways. Two different concepts of travel time variability are used, which differ in their assumptions on information availability to drivers. The first measure is based on the assumption that, for a given road link and given time of day, the expected travel time is constant across all working days (rough information: RI). In the second case, expected travel times are assumed to reflect day-specific factors such as weather conditions or weekdays (fine information: FI). For both definitions of variability, we find that the mean travel time is a good predictor. On average, longer delays are associated with higher variability. However, the derivative of variability with respect to delays is decreasing in delays. It can be shown that this result relates to differences in the relative shares of observed traffic ‘regimes’ (free-flow, congested, hyper-congested) in the mean delay. For most CBAs, no information on the relative shares of the traffic regimes is available. A non-linear model based on mean travel times can then be used as an approximation.     

基于AQWA的双浮箱-双水平板浮式防波堤水动力分析

运用AQWA软件,针对双浮箱-双水平板浮式防波堤,建立不规则波作用下浮体锚链的耦合模型,研究时域情况下,改变水平板与浮箱的垂直间距,分析浮体运动响应以及锚链受力情况;并深入探讨了不同波浪周期和波高情况下水平板长度对浮体运动响应以及锚链受力的影响.结果表明,增加水平板与浮箱的垂直间距和水平板长度,可以有效减小浮体运动响应和锚链受力.波高和波浪周期是浮体重要的水动力因素,波高越大,波浪周期越长,浮体运动响应越剧烈;当浮体水平板长度达到21米左右时,整个防波堤达到最佳锚泊状态.     

大跨斜拉桥施工与成桥状态风致抖振响应分析

为研究大跨斜拉桥成桥与施工状态的风致抖振响应,分别采用时域和频域方法对一座典型大跨斜拉桥的成桥状态、施工最大双悬臂与最大单悬臂状态进行了数值计算.采用改进的谐波合成法模拟桥梁结构的随机脉动风场,基于有限元编程,实现了考虑自激力的斜拉桥抖振时域分析,使用多模态耦合分析方法进行斜拉桥的频域抖振分析.分析结果表明:在主梁设计基准风速下,成桥状态和施工状态的横桥向和扭转角抖振位移均较小,施工最大双悬臂中跨悬臂端点竖桥向抖振位移较大,在施工中应妥善处理;成桥与施工状态下的主塔塔顶抖振位移均较小,施工过程中可以不考虑主塔顶部的位移控制;基于合理模拟风场的时域计算方法,能够考虑各种非线性因素,能够较好地反映斜拉桥的抖振响应;不考虑气动导纳的频域计算会夸大斜拉桥的抖振响应,考虑Sears函数作为气动导纳的频域计算方法会低估斜拉桥的抖振响应.     

基于FDS公路隧道火灾仿真研究

针对公路隧道突发火灾事故问题,采用模拟软件对隧道发生的火灾进行研究。分析火灾条件下公路隧道内被困人群的疏散行为特点,给出隧道内人员疏散的安全依据,按照隧道火灾条件下通风风速不同时火灾烟气蔓延情况,确定火灾可利用疏散时间(ASET),通过分析人员疏散特点计算出所需的疏散时间(RSET),通过对比得出:通风风速至少为3m/s时才能保证人员的安全疏散。     

基于时间约束的铁路空车调配系统可靠性分析

为弥补现有铁路空车调配系统缺乏空车调配可靠性研究的缺陷,在传统空车调配优化模型的基础上,本文提出了一种新的基于时间约束的空车调配可靠性分析方法。通过深入分析铁路空车调配过程,建立效益最大化目标函数,生成约束条件,以规定时间内的实际到达空车数与需求空车数之比计算出各需求站的空车调配可靠性,再利用各需求站可靠性均值求解空车调配系统的可靠性。最后,使用LINGO软件进行算例分析,论证了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

铁路高墩大跨度连续刚构桥抗震设计分析

为保证在罕遇地震下桥梁结构满足规范要求,以主跨120m的高墩大跨连续刚构桥——云南万拉木特大桥为例,运用MIDAS Civil建立连续刚构桥空间有限元模型,对其进行动力特性及罕遇地震作用下的非线性时程分析,并优化延性抗震设计。分析结果表明:桥梁振型以梁墩的横向振动为主,第1阶横向侧弯的自振周期为1.697s,全桥最大振幅出现在桥墩墩顶位置。在罕遇地震(50年超越概率为2%)作用下,中跨墩顶、底受力较大,均已进入屈服,但其弯矩均小于钢筋极限弯矩,桥梁满足"大震不倒"抗震性能目标。对塑性铰区进行优化,将墩底以上3m空心与实体分界位置处截面外层部分主筋弯折,形成最不利塑性铰区域;加强墩顶、底塑性铰区域横向约束钢筋布置,提高墩柱延性。